Question 1

What is the current probability for "What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms": Democrats 83%, Republicans 17% (top 2 of 2 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/15/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/hnOJ3DLTgqluHIzADxno. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

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