US Recession Odds 2026

16events· live· 3 platforms priced

Will the US enter a recession in 2026? Live probability aggregated across the prediction markets — the one question priced the same way on every platform.

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US recession in 2026 · platforms disagree by 4pp⚑ same question · every platform

PolymarketYes13%

ManifoldYES12%

KalshiYes9%

the same flagship question priced on each platform that lists it — the gap is where the markets disagree.

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US recession in 2026?

manifold·US recession in 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

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US Recession Odds 2026

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