US Recession Odds 2026
18events
Will the US enter a recession in 2026? Live probability aggregated across the prediction markets — the one question priced the same way on every platform.
consensus
US recession in 2026 · platforms disagree by 5pp⚑ same question · every platformthe same flagship question priced on each platform that lists it — the gap is where the markets disagree.
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket9¢
· 0.0pp
$21.4k
vol 24h
Recession this year?
kalshi·Starts4¢
▼ 1.0pp
$3.7k
vol 24h
Recession in 2027?
kalshi·Yes24¢
▲ 1.0pp
$470
vol 24h
US recession by end of 2027?
polymarket35¢
▼ 2.0pp
$320
vol 24h
When will the next US recession start?
kalshi·Q1 20266¢
· 0.0pp
$47
vol 24h
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
kalshi·Before 202725¢
· 0.0pp
$23
vol 24h
US recession by end of 2026?
opinion·US recession by end of 2026?6¢
$9
vol 24h
Recession this year?
gemini·Yes6¢
$0
vol 24h
MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?
kalshi·Below 15%80¢
$0
vol 24h
Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026?
kalshi·Yes12¢
· 0.0pp
$0
vol 24h
Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
kalshi·United Kingdom11¢
· 0.0pp
$0
vol 24h
US recession by end of 2026?
limitless·US recession by end of 2026?9¢
▼ 0.9pp
$0
vol 24h