US Recession Odds 2026
19events
Will the US enter a recession in 2026? Live probability aggregated across the prediction markets — the one question priced the same way on every platform.
consensus
US recession in 2026 · platforms disagree by 3pp⚑ same question · every platformthe same flagship question priced on each platform that lists it — the gap is where the markets disagree.
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
RT
kalshi·StartsRIkalshi·Yes
polymarket·Dem sweep; No recession
polymarketWTkalshi·Before 2027
opinion·US recession by end of 2026?polymarket
polymarketWCkalshi·United KingdomWWkalshi·Q3 2025
gemini·YesMAkalshi·Below 15%
Recession this year?
kalshi·Starts2¢
▼ 1.0pp
$66.2k
vol 24h
Recession in 2027?
kalshi·Yes24¢
▲ 3.0pp
$35.7k
vol 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
polymarket·Dem sweep; No recession65¢
▲ 4.7pp
$19.7k
vol 24h
US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket5¢
▼ 1.0pp
$6.6k
vol 24h
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
kalshi·Before 20275¢
▲ 2.0pp
$4.5k
vol 24h
US recession by end of 2026?
opinion·US recession by end of 2026?6¢
$141
vol 24h
US recession by end of 2027?
polymarket30¢
▼ 2.5pp
$122
vol 24h
Japan recession in 2026?
polymarket12¢
▲ 3.5pp
$9
vol 24h
Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
kalshi·United Kingdom10¢
· 0.0pp
$7
vol 24h
When will the next US recession start?
kalshi·Q3 20253¢
· 0.0pp
$2
vol 24h
Recession this year?
gemini·Yes6¢
$0
vol 24h
MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?
kalshi·Below 15%80¢
$0
vol 24h