Recession in 2027?
As of 00:41 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Recession in 2027?” at 22% (+3pp in 24h). The market has $8.4k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi, Opinion and Predict.
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
