What is the current probability for "Recession this year?"?

"Yes" is currently 5% (-1pp in the last 24h) on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 2/7/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXRECSSNBER-26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Recession this year?

·Economy

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$3.2M

vol 24h

$41.2k

spread

0.01

ends

Feb 7, 2027

Yes 5¢

No 95¢

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.

timeline

opened · Jul 14, 2025opencloses · Feb 7, 2027

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