Recession this year?

Kalshi·Economy

As of 20:26 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, Kalshi prices “Recession this year?” at 3%. The market has $74k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Gemini, Kalshi, Manifold, Polymarket, Limitless and Predict.

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.