Question 1

What is the current probability for "When will the next US recession start?"?

Accepted Answer

pdata aggregates live probability data for "When will the next US recession start?" from kalshi. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXNBERRECESSQ. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

When will the next US recession start?

Markets

Q1 2026

Q4 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q1 2025

Q4 2024