pdatanews240
opentrade on Kalshi ↗
event6 outcomes

When will the next US recession start?

Kalshi·Economy·ends Dec 31, 2026

As of 15:22 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, “Q1 2026” leads “When will the next US recession start?” on Kalshi at 3%, followed by “Q4 2025” at 1% and “Q4 2024” at 0%, out of 6 outcomes. The event has $83 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Limitless, Polymarket and Kalshi.

vol cum
$520.8k
vol 24h
$83
outcomes
6
ends
Dec 31, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
marketselected outcome
Q1 2026
rank #1
United States
3¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$86.1k
vol 24h
$83
spread
0.06
ends
Dec 31, 2026

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline
opened · Aug 16, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026
Q1 2026 · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history

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