Will US wage growth exceed 3.7% by July 2027?

·Economy

United States

If BLS reports that the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027, inclusive, is strictly above 3.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will use the 12-month percent change reported by BLS in the Employment Situation release for series CES0500000003. Settlement is based on the value initially reported for that reference month and subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.