Will US wage growth exceed 3.7% by July 2027?
As of 19:47 UTC on 21 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will US wage growth exceed 3.7% by July 2027?” at 33%. The market has no Kalshi-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Manifold, Predict and Polymarket.
If BLS reports that the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027, inclusive, is strictly above 3.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will use the 12-month percent change reported by BLS in the Employment Situation release for series CES0500000003. Settlement is based on the value initially reported for that reference month and subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
