Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?
As of 16:31 UTC on 15 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?” at 88%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Opinion, Polymarket, Kalshi, Gemini and Manifold.
This market resolves YES if the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the United States is 3% or higher for the calendar year 2026 (Dec 2026 price level compared to Dec 2025). The resolution will be based on the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. Goes by the headline figure, typically rounded to 1 decimal. I will use most suitable replacement if BLS stops publishing this statistic or if it is widely treated as unreliable measure of inflation. I will bet in this market. If we hit ambiguity around reliability will agree with a group of representative YES and NO holders.
