What is the current probability for "How high will inflation get in 2026?"?

The contested Polymarket outcomes for "How high will inflation get in 2026?" are Above 4.5% 21%, Above 5% 14%, Above 6% 6% — 3 of 8 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/80773. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event8 outcomes

How high will inflation get in 2026?

·Economy·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$1.3M

vol 24h

$543

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 8

InflationMacro IndicatorsEconomyPolitics

marketselected outcome

Above 3.5%

rank #1 · resolved: yes

100¢

vol cum

$176.7k

vol 24h

spread

0.00

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

timeline

opened · Mar 20, 2026closedresolved · May 12, 2026

prices over time · Above 3.5% highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history