Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?

Kalshi·Science and Technology

United States

As of 01:26 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?” at 58% (-4pp in 24h). The market has $26 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?” on Manifold, priced at 29%. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Opinion.

If Blue Origin lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship as well as before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.