event4 outcomes

Will China obtain an EUV machine?

Kalshi·Politics·ends Jan 8, 2030

As of 04:08 UTC on 10 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 4 markets in “Will China obtain an EUV machine?” on Kalshi are “Before Jan 1, 2030” at 75%, “Before Jan 1, 2029” at 58% and “Before Jan 1, 2028” at 28%. The event has no Kalshi-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.

vol cum

$2k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2030

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Before Jan 1, 2030

rank #1

China

75¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$59

vol 24h

spread

0.09

ends

Jan 8, 2030

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 13, 2026opencloses · Jan 8, 2030

Before Jan 1, 2030 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history