Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
As of 12:15 UTC on 13 Jul 2026, Manifold prices “Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?” at 36%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics: 1. Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund. If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion. 2. Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion. 3. The Nature Index. If this index is discontinued, then International Science Ranking takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves to N/A. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
