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China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

Kalshi·Economy

ChinaUnited States

As of 01:26 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?” at 21% (+2pp in 24h). The market has $4 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.

21%

▲ 2.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$133.5k

vol 24h

$4

spread

0.02

ends

Jan 1, 2030

Yes 21¢

No 79¢

If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Apr 30, 2024opencloses · Jan 1, 2030

By 2030 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history

similar markets

suggested by pdata

Manifold

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

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US nominal GDP growth in 2030

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Polymarket

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

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Manifold

Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

yes54¢· 0.0pp

M50 24h · 1 market

Kalshi

US real GDP growth in 2030?

2.6% to 3.0%14¢· 0.0pp1.6% to 2.0%10¢· 0.0pp2.1% to 2.5%8¢· 0.0pp

$0 24h · 14 markets

Polymarket

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)18¢▼ 4.0ppOverheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)77¢▲ 0.5ppStagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)1¢▲ 0.3pp

$482 24h · 4 markets