Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?

Manifold·World

ChinaUnited States

As of 14:40 UTC on 28 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?” at 54%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.

Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945 Sep 4, 9:54pm: Probably I'll use The World Bank or something, if I consider reliable.