Will China ever surpass US gdp?

Manifold·World

ChinaUnited States

As of 04:09 UTC on 7 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will China ever surpass US gdp?” at 64%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.

Sep 5, 9:58am: Resolves NO if China is passed as the second largest economy (or if either China &/ the US cease to exist)