What is the current probability for "Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?": New Hampshire 67%, South Carolina 23%, Iowa 10% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 4/8/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXDEMFIRSTCONTEST-28. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event4 outcomes

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

·Politics·ends Apr 8, 2028

vol cum

$34.6k

vol 24h

$34.4k

outcomes

ends

Apr 8, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

New Hampshire

rank #1

United States

67¢

▲ 67.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$11.7k

vol 24h

$11.7k

spread

0.03

ends

Apr 8, 2028

If New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 27, 2026opencloses · Apr 8, 2028

New Hampshire · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history