What is the current probability for "Which G7 leader will leave office next?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Which G7 leader will leave office next?": Emmanuel Macron 89%, Andy Burnham 4%, Giorgia Meloni 3% (top 3 of 7 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2045.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXG7LEADEROUT-26JUL20. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event7 outcomes

Which G7 leader will leave office next?

·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2045

vol cum

$1.8k

vol 24h

$1.8k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2045

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 7

marketselected outcome

Emmanuel Macron

rank #1

France

89¢

▼ 7.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$182

vol 24h

$182

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 1, 2045

If the individual holding the title of President of France at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 20, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2045

Emmanuel Macron · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history