Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Kalshi·Climate and Weather

As of 02:12 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?” at 74%. The market has $670 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Kalshi, Opinion, Manifold, Polymarket, Myriad and Gemini.

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027