Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 04:06 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?” at 37%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Kalshi, Predict, Polymarket, Manifold and Myriad.

Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA [image]Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If NOAA ranks 2026 as a tie for hottest year on record, the market will resolve 50/50.