AI Model Odds
72events
Live odds on the AI model race plus Chatbot Arena standings and release timing, aggregated across every platform that prices them.
consensus
Best AI model at the end of 2026 · platforms disagree by 4pp⚑ same question · every platform| outcome |  Kalshi |  Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Google (Gemini) | 72% | 76% |
| Anthropic (Claude) | 22% | 20% |
| OpenAI (ChatGPT) | 5% | 3% |
| Meta (Muse) | 1% | 1% |
| Moonshot (Kimi) | 1% | <1% |
| Alibaba (Qwen) | 1% | <1% |
| xAI (Grok) | 1% | <1% |
| Baidu (Ernie) | <1% | <1% |
Best AI model at the end of 2026: the price in percent on each platform that lists it, as of 15:28 UTC on 13 Nov 2026. The gap is where the markets disagree. Top 8 of 15 outcomes.
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
polymarket·$1.25–$1.5T40¢
▲ 3.4pp
$637.6k
vol 24h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
polymarket·↑$1.5T78¢
▼ 1.3pp
$313.1k
vol 24h
Best AI at the end of 2026?
kalshi·Gemini72¢
· 0.0pp
$126.3k
vol 24h
DeepSeek market share this week
kalshi·Above 27.8%99¢
· 0.0pp
$89.9k
vol 24h
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
polymarket·Google87¢
▲ 7.5pp
$78.3k
vol 24h
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
polymarket·December 3198¢
▼ 1.0pp
$69.4k
vol 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
polymarket·1.2–1.5T44¢
▲ 6.7pp
$56k
vol 24h
OpenAI market share this week
kalshi·Above 17.4%99¢
▲ 3.0pp
$43.6k
vol 24h
When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+?
kalshi·Before Dec 31, 202696¢
· 0.0pp
$40.7k
vol 24h
Best AI this month
kalshi·Gemini87¢
▲ 7.0pp
$37.4k
vol 24h
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
polymarket·Google76¢
▲ 4.0pp
$25.5k
vol 24h
Anthropic market share this week
kalshi·Above 4.8%99¢
· 0.0pp
$20.9k
vol 24h