AI Model Odds
71events
Live odds on the AI model race plus Chatbot Arena standings and release timing, aggregated across every platform that prices them.
consensus
Best AI model at the end of 2026⚑ same question · every platformthe same flagship question priced on each platform that lists it — the gap is where the markets disagree.
the model race
each platform’s standings on the marquee question
PolymarketAnthropic76%
Google11%
OpenAI9%
xAI3%
Meta2%
Alibaba1%
Z.ai1%
DeepSeek0%
KalshiClaude76%
ChatGPT12%
Gemini9%
Muse Spark2%
Grok2%
Kimi1%
Qwen1%
Ernie0%
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
BAkalshi·Claude
polymarket·Anthropic
polymarket·September 28polymarket·AnthropicHM
manifold·2+ Anthropic employees resign
polymarket·December 31, 2027polymarket·1470+
polymarket·November 30polymarket·AnthropicWWkalshi·Before Jan 1, 2027ASkalshi·Above 38%
predict·Alibaba
Best AI at the end of 2026?
kalshi·Claude76¢
▲ 1.2pp
$106.1k
vol 24h
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
polymarket·Anthropic89¢
· 0.0pp
$78.2k
vol 24h
Next Claude Sonnet released on...?
polymarket·September 2892¢
▲ 29.0pp
$31.2k
vol 24h
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
polymarket·Anthropic100¢
▲ 0.0pp
$28.3k
vol 24h
How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?
25¢
▼ 15.2pp
M23.6k
vol 24h
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
polymarket·December 31, 202770¢
· 0.0pp
$22.2k
vol 24h
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?
polymarket·1470+77¢
▲ 19.5pp
$17.6k
vol 24h
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
polymarket·November 3096¢
▲ 1.0pp
$15.1k
vol 24h
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
polymarket·Anthropic76¢
▲ 0.5pp
$13.9k
vol 24h
When will Google release Gemini 4?
kalshi·Before Jan 1, 202792¢
· 0.0pp
$13.6k
vol 24h
Anthropic share of spend on Sep 28, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi·Above 38%99¢
▲ 99.0pp
$12.8k
vol 24h
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
predict·Alibaba100¢
· 0.0pp
$9.9k
vol 24h