What is the current probability for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?": Before Jul 1, 2028 85%, Before Jan 1, 2029 85%, Before Jul 1, 2027 73% (top 3 of 20 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 4/1/2029.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event20 outcomes

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

·Politics·ends Apr 1, 2029

vol cum

$29.7M

vol 24h

$463.9k

outcomes

ends

Apr 1, 2029

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 20

marketselected outcome

Before Jul 1, 2027

rank #3

IranOmanUnited Arab Emirates

73¢

▲ 16.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.3M

vol 24h

$85.9k

spread

0.01

ends

Sep 29, 2027

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Apr 14, 2026opencloses · Sep 29, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history