Will SCOTUS stay the political-ad rates ruling?
·PoliticsIf the U.S. Supreme Court grants the application to stay the Fourth Circuit's August 25, 2026 judgment in Brown v. FCC, No. 26-1785 in National Republican Congressional Committee, et al. v. Sherrod Brown, et al., No. 26A274 before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The ruling must: Be issued by the U.S. Supreme Court in National Republican Congressional Committee, et al. v. Sherrod Brown, et al., No. 26A274 Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: A temporary administrative stay entered only to permit briefing or consideration of the application A grant or denial of certiorari that does not itself stay the Fourth Circuit's August 25, 2026 judgment Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment Action by the FCC, Congress, or another court that does not include the specified Supreme Court stay For clarity: A stay pending certiorari, or another order expressly granting the application to stay the identified Fourth Circuit judgment, qualifies Partial relief qualifies only if it stays the portion of that judgment blocking the applicants from receiving the favorable advertising-rate treatment at issue Per curiam opinions and summary orders count if they match the specified judgment If multiple justices issue separate opinions, the majority or plurality opinion controls
