What is the current probability for "Which leaders will leave office in 2026?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Which leaders will leave office in 2026?" are Aleksandar Vučić 94%, Ali Khamenei 70%, Benjamin Netanyahu 48% — 3 of 39 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/8/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event39 outcomes

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

·Politics·ends Jan 8, 2027

vol cum

$3.9M

vol 24h

$7.2k

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 39

marketselected outcome

Viktor Orbán

rank #1 · resolved: yes

Hungary

100¢

vol cum

$106.7k

vol 24h

spread

0.00

ends

Jan 8, 2027

If Viktor Orbán has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Hungary or has actually left Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Nov 11, 2025closedresolved · May 9, 2026

Viktor Orbán · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history