What is the current probability for "Keir Starmer departure announced?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Keir Starmer departure announced?": Before Sep 1, 2026 100%, Before Jul 1, 2026 100%, Before Aug 1, 2026 99% (top 3 of 17 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/8/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXLEAVESTARMER. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Kalshi

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event17 outcomes

Keir Starmer departure announced?

·Politics·ends Dec 8, 2026

vol cum

$3.4M

vol 24h

$624k

outcomes

ends

Dec 8, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 17

marketselected outcome

Before Jul 23, 2026

rank #5 · resolved: yes

United Kingdom

99¢

▲ 9.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$19.3k

vol 24h

$19.3k

spread

1.00

ends

Jul 30, 2026

If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jun 20, 2026closedresolved · Jun 22, 2026

Before Jul 23, 2026 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history