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event4 outcomes

How will Keir Starmer leave office?

Manifold·Politics·ends Jun 30, 2029
H
vol cum
M15.3k
vol 24h
M1.7k
outcomes
4
ends
Jun 30, 2029
outcomesclick to inspect →

Resolves to the means by which Keir Starmer loses power as the UK’s Prime Minister. “Resigns” captures scenarios where Starmer voluntarily ceases to be PM without legal obligation, even if there is strong pressure (eg resignation following a non-binding no confidence vote or in the middle of a leadership challenge both count for “resigns”). It also includes resignation for personal reasons like health. “Other” captures any scenario not listed, including death, incapacitation, criminal disqualification or expulsion by the monarch.

elections-worlduk-politicselectionsukpolitics-default
marketselected outcome
Resigns
rank #1
United Kingdom
R
83¢
▲ 40.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M7.7k
vol 24h
M538
spread
n/a
ends
Jun 30, 2029
timeline
opened · May 18, 2026opencloses · Jun 30, 2029
prices over time · Resigns highlighted
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
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