What is the current probability for "National Book Award for Nonfiction"?

Current Kalshi odds for "National Book Award for Nonfiction": Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America 18%, The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home 18%, Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming 17% (top 3 of 11 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Nov 18, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXNATBOOKAWARDS-NONF26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event11 outcomes

National Book Award for Nonfiction

·Culture·ends Nov 18, 2027

vol cum

$14.6k

vol 24h

$14.6k

outcomes

ends

Nov 18, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

marketselected outcome

Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America

rank #1

United States

18¢

▲ 18.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.3k

vol 24h

$1.3k

spread

0.01

ends

Nov 18, 2027

If 'Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America' wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Sep 23, 2026opencloses · Nov 18, 2027

Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history