Will New Zealand enact an under-16 social media ban?
·PoliticsIf an under-16 social media ban has become law in New Zealand before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Legislation not requiring executive approval: final passage and completion of required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes Executive orders: official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges. For this market, an “under-16 social media ban” means a legally binding national measure that prohibits people under 16 from holding or accessing accounts on a class of social media platforms, or requires those platforms to prevent people under 16 from holding or accessing such accounts. A measure that only requires age assurance, child-safety risk assessments, parental consent, or other safeguards, without prohibiting under-16 accounts or access, does NOT qualify. The measure may include additional provisions and may use any legislative vehicle. Enactment is measured when the measure receives Royal assent and becomes law, not when its substantive restrictions commence or begin being enforced.
