What is the current probability for "When will the UK's social media ban take effect?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "When will the UK's social media ban take effect?": Before Apr 1, 2027 55%, Before Aug 1, 2027 51%, Before Jan 1, 2027 41% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/8/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXUKSOCIALBAN-27. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

↗

event3 outcomes

When will the UK's social media ban take effect?

·Politics·ends Aug 8, 2027

vol cum

$684

vol 24h

$51

outcomes

ends

Aug 8, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Before Apr 1, 2027

rank #1

United Kingdom

55¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$591

vol 24h

$51

spread

0.01

ends

Apr 8, 2027

If a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jun 16, 2026opencloses · Apr 8, 2027

prices over time · Before Apr 1, 2027 highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

similar markets

suggested by pdata

polymarket

UK social media ban in effect by…?

June 30, 202756¢▲ 0.5ppDecember 31, 202632¢▲ 1.5pp

$0 24h · 2 markets

kalshi

US bans social media for children in 2026?

yes7¢· 0.0pp

$0 24h · 1 market

manifold

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

yes6¢· 0.0pp

M59 24h · 1 market

opinion

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

No Next PM in 202611¢· 0.0ppLucy Powell90¢· 0.0ppAl Carns40¢· 0.0pp

+7 others

$1.4k 24h · 10 markets

polymarket

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 16 - June 23, 2026?

200+20¢▲ 11.0pp180-19932¢▲ 15.5pp120-13914¢▼ 23.0pp

+8 others

$3.4k 24h · 11 markets

kalshi

Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law?

yes14¢· 0.0pp

$0 24h · 1 market

opentrade on Kalshi

↗

event3 outcomes

When will the UK's social media ban take effect?

·Politics·ends Aug 8, 2027

vol cum

$684

vol 24h

$51

outcomes

ends

Aug 8, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Before Apr 1, 2027

rank #1

United Kingdom

55¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$591

vol 24h

$51

spread

0.01

ends

Apr 8, 2027

If a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jun 16, 2026opencloses · Apr 8, 2027

prices over time · Before Apr 1, 2027 highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history