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Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?

Kalshi·Politics
United States
84%
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$5k
vol 24h
$76
spread
0.07
ends
Jan 1, 2030
Yes 84¢
No 16¢

If the Supreme Court, in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins, rules the Second and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee a right to possess AR-15-platform and similar semiautomatic rifles, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision holding that the Second and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee the right to possess AR-15-platform and similar semiautomatic rifles, after Issuance and before January 1, 2030. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that those Amendments do not guarantee such a right. A decision recognizing the right and remanding for further proceedings resolves to Yes; if the cases are dismissed, found improvidently granted, or remanded without deciding whether the asserted constitutional right exists, the market resolves to No.

timeline
opened · Jun 30, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2030
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