What is the current probability for "Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?": Before 2027 6%, Before April 1%, Before March 1% (top 3 of 7 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 8, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTARIFFCHECKS-26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event7 outcomes

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

·Politics·ends Jan 8, 2027

vol cum

$2.5M

vol 24h

$19.7k

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 7

marketselected outcome

Before 2027

rank #1

United States

6¢

▲ 0.9pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.3M

vol 24h

$19.7k

spread

0.00

ends

Jan 8, 2027

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Dec 11, 2025opencloses · Jan 8, 2027

Before 2027 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history