What is the current probability for "2026: Trump's dream year?"?

"Yes" is currently 8% (+5pp in the last 24h) on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/7/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTRUMPBULLCASECOMBO-27DEC. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

2026: Trump's dream year?

·Politics

United States

▲ 5.2pp

24h change

vol cum

$563.3k

vol 24h

$443

spread

0.04

ends

Jan 7, 2028

Yes 8¢

No 92¢

If **ALL** of the following occur: 1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND 2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND 3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND 4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026 then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: - "Will Trump's VoteHub approval rating rise above 48% in 2026?" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms?" uses CONTROL - "Will U.S. GDP grow by more than 5% in any quarter from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (inclusive)?" uses LGDP - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stay below 5% in 2026?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period; CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate on Feb 1, 2027; LGDP - based on real GDP, quarter-over-quarter percent change, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR)

timeline

opened · Dec 17, 2025opencloses · Jan 7, 2028

similar markets