Question 1

What is the current probability for "Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?": Joe Biden 54%, Donald Trump 27%, Bill Clinton 9% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 7/8/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/1d8XLKUEzzZVVGRpdpso. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?

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