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Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Manifold·Science and Technology
74%
vol cum
M21.1k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2029
YES 74¢
NO 26¢

Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.

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opened · Oct 3, 2023opencloses · Jan 1, 2029
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