Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?” at 75%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.

Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.