Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?
As of 00:40 UTC on 27 Oct 2026, “Gannon Ken Van Dyke” leads “Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?” on Manifold at 99%, followed by “We don't find out by end of 2026” at 0% and “Other” at 0%, out of 14 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict and Manifold.
As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100 I will resolve after the end of 2026 based on my own appraisal of the consensus of publicly available, credible reporting at that time (not based on my own speculation). I may resolve to partial probabilities if there has been some reporting but it does not rise to the level of consensus or near-certainty in my view. I do not plan to get overly granular about the probabilities in this hypothetical partial resolution case - it's gonna be something like "50% we don't find out, 50% this person" or "25% we don't find out, 50% this person, 25% that person" if I go that route. I'll be mentally rounding probabilities above 90% or below 10% to 100% and 0% respectively when I resolve. Feel free to add answers (I'm making the market partially in the hopes people will do research to find likely candidates I don't know about) but please note that duplicate answers will be ignored (the first one wins), as will any answers that do not refer to a specific, named person (other than "we don't find out"). I will only resolve directly to "other" if we find out before the end of 2026, but no one has added the person's name as an answer. I do not expect this to happen - resolution will almost certainly be a named person, "we don't find out", or some combination of the above as described above if applicable. Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): General categories are not valid answers on this market. All answers must refer to a specific, named person (except for the "we don't find out" option). Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Future answers that clearly do not meet the criteria (i.e., do not refer to a specific, named person) cannot be later edited to become valid. Such answers will be permanently invalid and will not be eligible for resolution even if edited later to include a correct name. Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the trader worked through an intermediary or broker who operated the Polymarket account, the market will resolve to whoever was driving the trade in order to personally benefit financially, not necessarily the person who physically operated the account. The resolution will be based on who made the decision and stood to receive the majority of the winnings, even if a minority cut went to a broker or intermediary. Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the case of a true 50/50 split between two individuals, the market will resolve 50/50 between them. However, the creator will make an effort to resolve to the "mastermind" behind the trade if it is reasonable to identify one person as the primary decision-maker, even in cases of shared stakes. Update 2026-01-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. Vague rumors from a single source will not be sufficient for resolution. The market will resolve after the end of 2026 as originally stated. Update 2026-09-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator currently plans to resolve the market to Van Dyke if no other reporting or information emerges before the end of 2026.
