Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
As of 03:01 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?” at 98% (+11pp in 24h). The market has M$591 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.
Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved. The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest. Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark. So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found. Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed. AI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.
