marketsingle market
Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?
United States
21%
▼ 3.2pp
24h change
vol cum
M13.1k
vol 24h
M3.2k
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2027
YES 21¢
NO 79¢
Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of Except, one year later. This market will resolve YES if: Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2027. Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2027. The market will resolve NO if: Mangione is acquitted of murder charges No conviction is reached by January 1st, 2027 Charges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter) Mangione is never formally charged with murder Mangione dies before a conviction is reached
timeline
opened · Aug 14, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027