"AI 2027" report's predictions borne out by 2027?
As of 02:37 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “"AI 2027" report's predictions borne out by 2027?” at 30%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027 https://ai-2027.com/ This market resolves in January 2027. It resolves YES if the AI Futures Project's predictions seem to have been roughly correct up until that point. Some details here and there can be wrong, just as in Daniel's 2021 set of predictions, but the important through-lines should be correct. Resolution will be via a poll of Manifold moderators. If they're split on the issue, with anywhere from 30% to 70% YES votes, it'll resolve to the proportion of YES votes. Otherwise it resolves YES/NO.
