Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?": No strikes, regime stays 94%, No strikes, regime falls 6%, Strikes, regime stays 0% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Dec 31, 2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/9dOQ5uOO22. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?

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