Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?

Manifold·World·ends Dec 31, 2026

As of 04:10 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, “No strikes, regime stays” leads “Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?” on Manifold at 95%, followed by “No strikes, regime falls” at 5% and “Strikes, regime stays” at 0%, out of 4 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Opinion.