Will the Iranian Regime fall before October?

**Market Dates:** - **Market Period**: From the publication date through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached. **Resolution Criteria:** - Resolves to "**Yes**" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern within the Market Period. - Resolves to “**No**” if not. **Resolution Details:** - A potential “Yes” resolution requires credible sources to confirm that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical control—have been dismantled, rendered inoperative, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of governance, or that they have otherwise lost de facto control over most of Iran’s population. This may occur through revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign authority. - Routine political events, including elections, reforms, or leadership transitions, do not qualify. Power shifts or internal coups that leave the core structure of the Islamic Republic intact also do not qualify. - To qualify, a definitive break in institutional continuity is required, such as the establishment of a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or a new constitution that replaces the Islamic Republic. - Loss of control over limited territory or opposition from rebel or exile groups does not qualify unless the Islamic Republic ceases to govern the majority of Iran’s population within the country. - The market will be resolved based on reports from the Iranian governements official communication channels, [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/), [Al Jazeera English](https://www.aljazeera.com/) and the [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/). **Cancellation Conditions:** - The resolution sources are unavailable or compromised. - Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable determination of the outcome. In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.