Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran. This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include: Revolution Civil war Military coup Voluntary abdication of power Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority To qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.
