Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Manifold·World

Iran

As of 13:16 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?” at 24%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Opinion and Kalshi.

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Jan 1, 2030

Resolves YES if by January 1st 2030, the revolutionary regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran collapses, by international media consensus. Of course, death of Ali Khamenei in itself does not count as a regime change. Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.