What is the current probability for "Will we discover alien life before 2034?"?

"YES" is currently 16% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 3/1/2034.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/A0m9BnVEX4EwPdPD3LYZ. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will we discover alien life before 2034?

·Science and Technology

16%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M4.1k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Mar 1, 2034

YES 16¢

NO 84¢

Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2034. This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies. Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-2f90be5ca48d @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-10cdf89aac16 (this question) @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-6615ab742cc6 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-b0a07b306797 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-df678746ea9a Other questions for 2034: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ba1e9ced21b7 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-06bd353512dc @/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-b852297a6f2a @/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-26c0cd7762d5 Other reference points for the discovery of alien life: @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1 If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth. If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify. If this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the "discovery" in the context of this question. The definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving. Image credits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:James_Webb_Space_Telescope_2009_top.jpg

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opened · Jan 26, 2024opencloses · Mar 1, 2034

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