Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 14:18 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?” at 32% (-3pp in 24h). The market has M$13.4k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Manifold, Predict, Opinion and Kalshi.

32%

▼ 2.7pp

24h change

vol cum

M319.2k

vol 24h

M13.4k

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 1, 2026

Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise. If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.