Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?" are Idaho 95%, Montana 95%, Oklahoma 94% — 6 of 35 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/4/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/36n8hwv2y2. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?

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