Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 03:49 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?” at 90% (-1pp in 24h). The market has M$2.8k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Opinion, Predict, Kalshi, Gemini and Polymarket.

90%

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M17.1k

vol 24h

M2.8k

spread

n/a

ends

Nov 11, 2026

If Marco Rubio leaves the Senate, there will be a special election in 2026 to decide who will fill the position for the remaining 2 years of that term. If a GOP candidate wins this election, this market resolves yes. If a non-GOP candidate wins, the election isn't held, or some other outcome occurs, this market resolves NO.