Question 1

What is the current probability for "When will Starship flight 14 happen?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "When will Starship flight 14 happen?" are Before 2026-12-01 94%, Before 2026-11-01 93%, Before 2026-10-16 91% — 4 of 12 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 5/4/2027.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/CtLp2yySsd. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.