What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?

Manifold·Politics·ends Nov 4, 2026

As of 20:28 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, “Democratic” leads “What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?” on Manifold at 72% (+2pp in 24h), followed by “Republican” at 27% (-2pp in 24h) and “Other” at 0%, out of 3 outcomes. The event has M$100 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Gemini, Manifold, Predict, Kalshi and Opinion.