Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
As of 08:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will humanity go extinct before 2030?” at 4%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO. For this question, we'll define humans the same as this Metaculus question: as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.