Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop
As of 07:55 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop” at 91%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use. For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner. This market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or across several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric). This market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available. I expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.