opentrade on
↗
event15 outcomes
Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

vol cum
M3.3k
vol 24h
M0
outcomes
15
ends
Apr 24, 2033
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 15
This market is about the first such shock. There may be many. The regulation must specifically cover AI, and not just particular undesired behaviours or use cases of AIs. For example, if a new law banned fabricated porn of real people created without their consent, that would not count for the purposes of this market, because such porn can be produced by humans with Photoshop. However, if a new law covers behaviour that humans are incapable of doing, both directly themselves or indirectly via writing non-AI software to do it, and only AIs are capable of doing it, that would count.
politics-defaultai-safetyaipornography
marketselected outcome
AIs taking jobs
rank #1
24¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M0
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Apr 24, 2033
timeline
opened · Apr 24, 2023opencloses · Apr 24, 2033
AIs taking jobs · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history
similar markets
suggested by pdataUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
yes8¢· 0.0pp
$0 24h · 1 market
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)18¢· 0.0ppJ. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.11¢· 0.0ppSomething wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)11¢· 0.0pp
+15 others
M0 24h · 18 markets
Will the US create a national AI regulator?
Before Jan 1, 202875¢· 0.0ppBefore Jul 1, 202741¢· 0.0ppBefore Jan 1, 202720¢· 0.0pp
$0 24h · 3 markets
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
yes11¢▼ 2.0pp
$788 24h · 1 market
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
yes96¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Comprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?
yes16¢· 0.0pp
$0 24h · 1 market