Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?
As of 13:29 UTC on 5 May 2026, “AIs taking jobs” leads “Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?” on Manifold at 24%, followed by “An AI injuring or killing someone by accident” at 24% and “An AI that appears friendly but then becomes treacherous and deceptive” at 17%, out of 15 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
This market is about the first such shock. There may be many. The regulation must specifically cover AI, and not just particular undesired behaviours or use cases of AIs. For example, if a new law banned fabricated porn of real people created without their consent, that would not count for the purposes of this market, because such porn can be produced by humans with Photoshop. However, if a new law covers behaviour that humans are incapable of doing, both directly themselves or indirectly via writing non-AI software to do it, and only AIs are capable of doing it, that would count.
