Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
As of 23:14 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?” at 42%. The market has M$65 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?” on Polymarket, priced at 38%. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi, Limitless, Predict and Opinion.
Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level. This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority. Tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government. Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party. There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year. Update 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria regarding minority governments: An AfD minority government tolerated by another party will resolve as YES (counts as being in power). The AfD tolerating another party's minority government will resolve as NO (does not count).
